Mirzoyan, N., Ott, I., Castro, J. R.

Sustainable Futures, 2025, 10, 101143

This study evaluates the effectiveness of diesel traffic bans in improving air quality in four major German cities—Berlin, Darmstadt, Hamburg, and Stuttgart—between 2012 and 2022. Using the Synthetic Control Method, the analysis compares observed nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) emissions with counterfactual scenarios. The results show that bans covering larger areas, such as in Stuttgart and Darmstadt, led to significant reductions in NO₂ emissions, while street-specific bans in Berlin and Hamburg had little measurable impact. Robustness checks with augmented and generalized synthetic control methods, synthetic difference in differences confirm these findings. The results highlight that the scope and design of urban diesel restrictions are critical for their success, underscoring the importance of city-specific policy tailoring in addressing air pollution and public health challenges.